What a bad first decade does to a $1.2M nest egg

Start with $1.2M and spend $72k a year. A smooth 6% average looks sustainable on a napkin. Put deep losses in the first ten years while you are withdrawing, and the same average can leave the left tail of outcomes empty. That is sequence risk: the order of returns can matter more than the long-run mean.

Jeme stresses historic and simulated sequences so you see a range, not one comforting line. You type the starting balance yourself. No bank linking. Projections are estimates, not a promise of safety.

Lower spending is one lever. Delay is another. Save a plan at $72k spending and one at $60k. Or keep spending and delay retirement two years. Compare how wide the failure band gets. If the left tail still fails often, the plan is telling you something a single average return would hide.

In Core you can keep multiple spending levels saved, add a part-time income bridge for five years, and watch how the survival range moves. Buy Core when you need more than one Free plan.

A thousand futures will not promise safety. They will show whether your spending assumption survives an ugly open.